I can't remember if I covered this stock in one of my fund holdings posts or Monday links post as maybe another Substack wrote about it. Anyway, I included a link to this post in my latest post:

Emerging Market Links + The Week Ahead (July 10, 2023)


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Mar 15·edited Mar 15

My assumptions (base case):

- TAM in Poland is ~4900 stores, or a double vs today. This is lower than other estimates I've seen (including yours and Jon Cukierwar's) but in line with Shree's 5300 (SVN Capital). My rationale: similar to Jon, I extrapolate from Dino's home town population to the countrywide TAM, but I cut out the population that is living in towns too large or too small for their Dino's strategy. I got my population statistics from this source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classification_of_localities_and_their_parts_in_Poland)

- This expansion will take 7-8 years. This is quite a bit slower than your (and probably everyone's) estimate. I just based this off their current and planned pace.

- Beyond that, I'm not assuming any further growth pipeline (international, convenience stores at gas stations... the latter looks promising though).

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