I can't remember if I covered this stock in one of my fund holdings posts or Monday links post as maybe another Substack wrote about it. Anyway, I included a link to this post in my latest post:
Emerging Market Links + The Week Ahead (July 10, 2023)
Either way, whether it was your post or someone else's, it's a fantastic company worth covering!
Appreciate you linking the article and spreading it around! Means a lot to have my first stock article shared exclusively on Substack to have gotten that recognition. All the best.
- TAM in Poland is ~4900 stores, or a double vs today. This is lower than other estimates I've seen (including yours and Jon Cukierwar's) but in line with Shree's 5300 (SVN Capital). My rationale: similar to Jon, I extrapolate from Dino's home town population to the countrywide TAM, but I cut out the population that is living in towns too large or too small for their Dino's strategy. I got my population statistics from this source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classification_of_localities_and_their_parts_in_Poland)
- This expansion will take 7-8 years. This is quite a bit slower than your (and probably everyone's) estimate. I just based this off their current and planned pace.
- Beyond that, I'm not assuming any further growth pipeline (international, convenience stores at gas stations... the latter looks promising though).
I can't remember if I covered this stock in one of my fund holdings posts or Monday links post as maybe another Substack wrote about it. Anyway, I included a link to this post in my latest post:
Emerging Market Links + The Week Ahead (July 10, 2023)
https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/emerging-markets-week-july-10-2023
Either way, whether it was your post or someone else's, it's a fantastic company worth covering!
Appreciate you linking the article and spreading it around! Means a lot to have my first stock article shared exclusively on Substack to have gotten that recognition. All the best.
It was the Q4 Portfolio Manager Commentary for Polen Global Emerging Markets Growth (NASDAQ: PGEIX) - they own the stock and covered it.... https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/em-fund-stock-picks-commentary-march-28-2023
My assumptions (base case):
- TAM in Poland is ~4900 stores, or a double vs today. This is lower than other estimates I've seen (including yours and Jon Cukierwar's) but in line with Shree's 5300 (SVN Capital). My rationale: similar to Jon, I extrapolate from Dino's home town population to the countrywide TAM, but I cut out the population that is living in towns too large or too small for their Dino's strategy. I got my population statistics from this source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classification_of_localities_and_their_parts_in_Poland)
- This expansion will take 7-8 years. This is quite a bit slower than your (and probably everyone's) estimate. I just based this off their current and planned pace.
- Beyond that, I'm not assuming any further growth pipeline (international, convenience stores at gas stations... the latter looks promising though).
Hmm, we have a pretty large GAP between our estimates then. You’re going to make me do a double verification of my numbers😂
Oh boy ;)
Shree lays out his math here: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OXYwcYNkdnM
Another data point came from management: last October they said they can easily 2-3x their store count domestically: https://twitter.com/pedroleongarci2/status/1708777793692053723