Isn't your calculation of Evolution's market share off? Evolution presents revenue in net basis, which means gross revenue - the market revenue - is roughly 10x, and thus market share is also 10x your calculation. Or am I thinking about this incorrectly?
So this would be Evolution's market share of the revenues, yes. That's a brilliant catch that I was debating on if I needed to include (I'd written the entire thing already and had already finished proof reading... so I let it go).
Basically, the estimated revenue share is around 12-14% if I recall correctly. So more like 7-8x. However, that's the total GGR of all of the partner's combined iGaming revenues for some of the largest gambling companies: Bet365, DraftKings, Fanduel, MGM, Betsson, all the Asian Aggregators (among many many others).
The assumption though is that yes all of these partners would capture around 36 - 48% of the revenues for online, depending on both 3-4% market share for Evolution and the 12-14% revenue share. That is a good catch but with the number of large operators that Evolution partners with and their advantage in supplying, it's not ridiculous.
Thanks for your response. I also think that market size is likely underestimated, especially for Evolution, considering how tricky it is to capture the activities in Grey market and also unfortunately those in black market where the players use various technology to disguise as Grey market player. Evolution generating 60% of revenue from unregulated market makes me think that meaningful chunk of their revenue might not be accurately captured in the research, which I think is simply the nature of gambling industry.
Just doing some back of the envelope maths, taking the €108b market, which is 21% live gaming, and applying the market share of 60% that you gave in the last post on EVO, would imply a revenue take rate of 8%. Do you know what causes this not to align with the 10-12% you mention in this post?
Isn't your calculation of Evolution's market share off? Evolution presents revenue in net basis, which means gross revenue - the market revenue - is roughly 10x, and thus market share is also 10x your calculation. Or am I thinking about this incorrectly?
So this would be Evolution's market share of the revenues, yes. That's a brilliant catch that I was debating on if I needed to include (I'd written the entire thing already and had already finished proof reading... so I let it go).
Basically, the estimated revenue share is around 12-14% if I recall correctly. So more like 7-8x. However, that's the total GGR of all of the partner's combined iGaming revenues for some of the largest gambling companies: Bet365, DraftKings, Fanduel, MGM, Betsson, all the Asian Aggregators (among many many others).
The assumption though is that yes all of these partners would capture around 36 - 48% of the revenues for online, depending on both 3-4% market share for Evolution and the 12-14% revenue share. That is a good catch but with the number of large operators that Evolution partners with and their advantage in supplying, it's not ridiculous.
Thanks for your response. I also think that market size is likely underestimated, especially for Evolution, considering how tricky it is to capture the activities in Grey market and also unfortunately those in black market where the players use various technology to disguise as Grey market player. Evolution generating 60% of revenue from unregulated market makes me think that meaningful chunk of their revenue might not be accurately captured in the research, which I think is simply the nature of gambling industry.
Just doing some back of the envelope maths, taking the €108b market, which is 21% live gaming, and applying the market share of 60% that you gave in the last post on EVO, would imply a revenue take rate of 8%. Do you know what causes this not to align with the 10-12% you mention in this post?
Great analysis William! In my opinion evolution is one of the best opportunities right now